Plymouth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

737
FXUS63 KMPX 111933
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
233 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke with diminished air quality expected today,
  improving after the frontal passage for Tuesday.

- The second half of the week continues to look warmer and more
humid. This will support a more active pattern with multiple rounds
of showers & thunderstorm through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

GOES satellite imagery reveals a developing Cu field overhead & a
swath of wildfire smoke ahead of an approaching cold front. This
wildfire smoke has led to the issuance of an AQA for all of MN &
west-central WI until Tuesday. Surface observations show the impact
of near surface smoke across western & central MN, where numerous
sites are observing visibilities down in the 3 to 5SM range. Smoke
will continue eastward throughout the day with visibility impacts
likely to follow. High temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s
with "comfortable" humidity levels & light SW winds. Overnight, an
approaching cold front will move into western & central MN, bringing
a band of scattered showers with it. There could be a few rumbles of
thunder, but nothing too impactful. Rain amounts are likely to be a
few hundredths to a quarter inch - not a widespread or heavy
rainfall by any means. This boundary will continue eastward with a
few isolated showers possible across E MN & W WI early Tuesday
morning.

Air quality should improve behind the front with NW/WNW surface
winds ushering in a smoke-free airmass. Temperatures will still warm
into the upper 70s & lower 80s but it should remain comfortable with
respect to humidity through mid week. A more active stretch is on
tap for the second half of the week into next weekend as low level
flow turns to the south. This will bring us multiple rain & t-storm
chances into next weekend. Guidance has Td`s increasing into the low
to mid 70s by Friday with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. This
will be a tricky set up as there is the potential for a stationary
boundary to set up somewhere across the Upper Midwest over the
weekend. This boundary would pose an increased threat of
thunderstorms & heavy rain potential, given the increased likelihood
of training convection. There is also a non-zero chance for severe
weather given the uptick in instability associated with the moist
airmass in place. Several shortwaves will track along this boundary,
each with the potential to bring heavy rain & severe thunderstorms,
but it`s too early to focus on the finer details given it`s 5+ days
out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas of smoke will continue to move into MN from the Dakotas
this afternoon. A band of SCT fair weather Cu around 3 to 4 kft
has developed & but cigs should remain VFR.  MVFR vsbys are
possible with the smoke today, especially across central MN. A
weak cold front will move through tonight, effectively pushing
the smoke out of the MPX CWA, and bring a chance for showers
overnight. Latest hires guidance struggles to bring the showers
beyond STC so I`ve opted to keep RWF/MKT/MSP dry. There could be
some redevelopment Tuesday morning across W WI so opted for
PROB30 for now.

KMSP...Smoke will arrive early this afternoon and may bring vis
down to 5 or 6SM. We opted to remove the PROB30 for -SHRA given
a drier/less confident signal in guidance.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg S.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH